On The World: Pakistan’s War Within

Us And Them…

Over a cold coffee and a slice of cheesecake, I sat down the other day, to a much-anticipated discussion with a variegated bunch of friends. Some from the intelligence community, others from the journalistic community who were following not just India, but the entire region – from the Middle East to North Africa and South Asia.

I am the greedy one, so I attacked the cheesecake.

But that aside, the main reason why I was looking forward to this discussion, was because in the past few months, I’ve been observing a growing storm of arguments and sentiments, about the present condition of the Indian state and its very future.

First, the facts.

From Telangana to Kashmir and from Belgaum to Assam, regional aspirational and separatist movements have sapped our underlying national fabric of its strength.

Left-wing extremism and misplaced political sympathy and patronage of it have cut deep ravines across out nation’s gut. So much so, that the Prime Minister and the Home Minister have both recently underlined the fact that Left-wing extremism is the gravest threat to our internal security.

Gutless, petty and short-sighted foreign policy has reduced us on the world stage to a nation that isn’t really taken seriously, if you know what I mean.

The plague of corruption at every stage of our existence has sapped our national strength like leukemia devouring us from the inside out. Anna Hazare was the right face at the right time, reflecting very real and legitimate sentiments of frustration, helplessness and insult of our collective intelligence at the hands of the corrupt. But the disease runs deep and far, pervading every essence of our nationhood today.

Yes our economy is growing, but the 1.2 billion population that we tom-tom as the best consumer market possible for driving our growth, is being sapped of its spending power by the growing rich-poor divide on the one hand, and the rising inflation and cost of living on the other.

All of these thoughts raced through my mind, as I sat at the table, listening to the conversation.

Till one comment struck me, purely in the sheer enormity of what was being inferred.

My friend from the intelligence community said: “You know, we have a population of over 1.2 billion. 11 percent of that is Muslim. Can you possibly imagine what will happen if they decide to turn radical?”

Barely had I begun doing the numbers, that I froze in mid-thought.

We aren’t Pakistan. Thank heavens! Or Afghanistan for that matter.  Both of which are crippled by radical Islam and Islamic terror.

We have enough of our crippling and divisive problems. We certainly don’t need to add the problems of Pakistan and Afghanistan to our basket of woes.

11 percent of our population turning radical is a very sobering thought. Because as numerous Hindu-Muslim riots in the country have shown in the past, that 11 percent of Muslim radicals will fuel a counter-balance of an equal number, if not more, from the majority Hindu community – out of sheer weightage of majority.

Will my beloved motherland survive then?

I am of the firm belief that the majority of the Indian Muslim community is Indian first, especially when it comes to issues of national interest. Yes, it’s a fact that during every Indo-Pak cricket match, they support Pakistan. So what? Who cares? We beat the crap out of Pakistan anyway. At least there’s someone supporting the underdog!

I also believe that the vast majority of the Indian Muslim community is poor, under-educated and just like the poor and under-educated of any other community, equally gullible and prone to being taken for a ride by the powerful and influential.

I firmly believe that despite the accusations of them not really believing in family planning or monogamy (it’s difficult enough surviving one wife for heaven’s sake!), they’re just your average folk, struggling against everyday problems that their counterparts from other communities also battle with.

But above all, I believe that for the large part, they are not radical terrorists.

Question is, can we as the rest of India ensure that they do not follow in the footsteps of their counterparts in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan, or even Yemen for that matter?

I put the question to the group and was rather surprised by the honesty.

Yes, it is a fact that the Ram Janambhoomi movement reflected a growing Hindu nationalistic pride and resulted in a political windfall for the BJP.

But it’s also true that for the first time, it created room for the radicals among Indian Muslims to grow roots within India.

Yes, it’s a fact that 59 kar sevaks died a horrible, horrible death on the Sabarmati Express at Godhra in 2002.

But it’s also a fact that the horrors that followed during the communal riots across Gujarat, once and for all gave the radicals among Muslims – in India and abroad – the perfect tool to propagate their vicious ideology.

Do you wonder why it’s always the post-Godhra riots that are dug up by Muslim radicals, when there have been dozens of other riots across India where Muslims have been slaughtered?

Have we – and are we – creating our own Frankenstein monsters?

Today, we face the wrath of the Indian Mujahideen, the HuJI, the LeT, the al Qaeda, the ISI, Dawood Ibrahim… the list goes on. These aren’t creatures that exist and operate within political boundaries. They are creatures sans frontiers. Their terror has no limits, no boundaries, no mercy. They devour all in their path, leaving behind a destructive wake where Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Jains, Jews, Parsis, Christians and everyone else is equally devastated. Death does not differentiate based on religion. Neither does terror.

Why then, do we feed the ogre named terror?

Every time the majority flexes its muscle, the minority steps further back into the shadows. Along with numerical might, comes responsibility. Or else, it’s reduces itself to mobocracy.

It is foolishly myopic of us to think that we are isolated and insulated from the world around us. We are judged as a nation and as a people, by our actions and words of intent.

When I was on assignment in Egypt, covering the people’s revolution, I would often be amused to find myself and my cameraperson being aggressively questioned about the country we were from. Each time they’d realise we had come from India (Hind), they’d smile and tell us: “Good you’re not from Pakistan.” Nobody it seems, likes a radical trouble-monger. There are of course various religious and ideological reasons behind their mistrust of Pakistanis too, which I must confess, are too detailed to go into at this moment.

But the lesson learnt was that India is respected abroad as a tolerant country. A nation where people of different religions, castes, colours and creeds live together as one, in peace and harmony. A nation that together with many in the Middle East and North Africa, founded the Non-Aligned Movement. Yet in so many ways – both social and economic – had successfully evolved to become much more advanced and economically stronger society.

Today, as I see and hear the debate around me becoming shriller and sharper, I fear we are poised, yet again, at the cross-roads.

I am appalled when a friend says we should “either do the Muslims in or send them all to Pakistan”. I am shocked when another says, “To hell with it all. I’ve had enough of corruption! So what if he’s been accused of being a mass murderer? At least he’ll tackle corruption! And then they can publicly hang him for all I care!”

To me, this deep frustration and impatience in the educated classes poses the biggest danger to India. Because the world interacts with us. Not the poor farmers, or the greasy politicians as much. It is with us in call centres, in MNCs, in newsrooms and other professional spheres of life, that the flat world meets us. And judges us.

To me, it is a tragedy that we feel so helpless and impotent that we need to turn on our own minorities, because we fail to see that the real enemies lie across the border. And every time we are conveniently myopic, we invite those from across to come over, and indoctrinate a few more from among us. And so the cycle goes on.

“Lets face it,” I remember another friend from the intelligence community telling me. ‘We simply don’t have the stomach to take the fight to Pakistan.”

It was ironic that a few days later, a diplomat told me pretty much the same.

Only today, a friend said: “Look at America. Don’t you agree with their policies?’

I said I damn well do! Look at what they’ve achieved 10 years on from 9/11. They’ve united in a bipartisan manner as one nation, one people, and taken the war to where the terrorists are. They’ve secured their boundaries, strengthened their internal security and intelligence, cracked down on domestic terror – be it Muslim, Christian, or otherwise. And they’re keeping an eye out and a ear to the ground in every centre of worship that could be misused, especially mosques and madarsas.

Today, if you’re an Arab, a Muslim, a Sikh or even a Hindu in America, you’d at worst be pulled over, scrutinised and asked a ton of questions by the authorities. Yes, you could also go through aggressive searching at the airport, if you’re named Khan.

But  I doubt you’d be living in fear of losing your life, or risking your business being burnt to the ground, because it suited a political agenda.

Why is it that we can’t hang Kasab, or Afzal Guru, or Rajiv’s killers alike? Why is it that we can’t go after Riaz Bhatkal, Dawood Ibrahim and Hafiz Saeed? Why is it that our police and intelligence can’t tell us which mosques, temples and churches are being misused by forces that are bent on dividing us? And why if we do find out, can’t we act against them?

The appeasement of the majority is as dangerous as the appeasement of the minority. We are one people, and should be held to the same standards and judged by the same yardsticks. One and all Indians.

Instead today, I wonder: Are we running the risk of becoming a nation of impotents that feels strong enough to pick on the weak, just because it’s convenient and they’re within reach?

Or are we poised for an awakening like no other?

An Indian revolution where we come together as one people, a nation of equals, to throw off the yoke of corruption, intolerance, mistrust, ignorance and subsequent divisiveness. An Indian dawn that sees us marching forward on the path of economic progress side-by-side with our fellow Indians from every corner of the country?

The choice is ours. To thrive united. Or implode and disintegrate.

Talk clear and straight to Obama, Mr Prime Minister!

It’s a little after 11 am and President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have just had the customary handshake photo-op at the historic Hyderabad House.

So far, it’s been a historic visit in terms of how a US President has approached New India. $10 billion dollars in deals and close to 60,000 American jobs have been saved and created back home. Many more, the President hopes will be created in India as more and more American companies export to India and more and more Americans come to work in India. More importantly, the business deals have been a much needed boost for America’s core industries – whatever is left of them anyway, given that close to 70 percent of American jobs outsourced are from the manufacturing sector and go to China. Little wonder then, that top Republican leader John McCain called for Americans to stop demonising India for stealing American jobs. At the end of the day, however, it’s been an all-important message that an embattled and substantially weakened Obama has sent back home to his constituency. That he’s gotten the job done as he promised he would.

Much has been made of the President Obama’s and First Lady Michelle Obama’s charm offensive. I am not surprised. It is in fact par for the course for Brand Obama, who is today in India, the First Salesman of America.  This is not the America that we’ve grown up idolising. This is an America that has been humbled as much by the economic rise of China, as it has been betrayed by Pakistan. This is a President who has as much been frustrated by Mullah Omar and his gang of merry Taliban, and Osama and the ever-growing  al Qaeda, as he has been introduced to the realities of West Asia and the vital importance of Iran and India.

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sits President Obama down for some straight talk – which I hope he does – it is vital that we leverage our economic advantages in the region, to secure our strategic interests.

Let me say right here, that I don’t expect Obama to say much against Pakistan on Indian soil. Islamabad may not be as reliable an ally of America in the War on Terror, but it is where America’s biggest enemies will be cornered for a very long time to come. It is also – most importantly – the little corner of the world, where America would like its biggest enemies to remain cornered for a very long time to come. Have you wondered why the al Qaeda has been recruiting from countries where citizens don’t need visas to go to the US? Washington has realised that the Pakistani Army and the ISI are highly unreliable allies in the War on Terror. At the same time, Obama knows that American money can buy off large sections of the Pakistani Army and ISI, but there will still consciously remain pockets in both establishments, that will not be allowed to be bought over by the Americans. And it will be these very pockets that will continue to foster and pose threats in the long run to America and its direct interests across the world. It wouldn’t really matter as much to America that Pakistan is cottoning up to China. America is doing the same for heaven’s sake. What really matters is getting the ‘real’ Pakistani establishment to keep Osama and his gang, and Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura and their merry men busy in the erstwhile FATA region and at best, eating into Pakistan’s structure. Which is not very good news for India, if you know what I mean!

Almost simultaneously – but a lot more inconspicuously – there has been a drastic change of track by America is Afghanistan.  All of a sudden, Tehran has – with America’s grudging blessings – been playing an overt role in attempts to secure and stabilise Afghanistan. What this is doing, is not only allowing Russia and Iran to play the counter-balance to Pakistan in Afghanistan, but also allow India – America’s beacon of democracy and stability in the region – to use its influence and understanding to bring Tehran around to a more ‘acceptable’ role and position of influence in the region.

Together with the silent but ever-growing Islamic superpower, Turkey, Iran is in my mind, being brought in to the Afghanistan equation, in a far more pragmatic manner now. It is an axis of power that cannot be ignored or brushed aside, and it is always better to engage constructively with Turkey and Iran, than to try and isolate them. Either which way, it’s never been the people of Iran that the Americans – or Israelis – have been against, but their leaders like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who incidentally, is fast becoming a bit of an embarrassment even for the Ayatollahs. Let us also not forget, that while Afghanistan is vital to our long term plans to keep Pakistan in check, Iran is out gateway to the markets of Central Asia.

India must also realise that America is neither in a position, nor will want to actively foster and support India as the counterbalance to China in the region. It is something we must do ourselves – and mind you, something America will certainly not be averse to!

It is hence time for straight talk Mr Prime Minister. It is time to leverage our markets, our economic growth, our democratic stability and our civilisational influence in the region, to further our strategic interests in the region and beyond.

And there, Mr Prime Minister, lies the rub! It’s time for some straight talk.

Let’s stop this obfuscation!

One look at US President Barack Obama’s Nuclear Posture Review and you know what his intentions are.

Having seen Obama’s stand on the Reliable Replacement Warheads programme, I am not surprised!

If there were any lingering doubts about Barack Obama’s ‘dogged determination’ to live up to his Nobel prize, the new START treaty signed with Russia, should clear them up pretty fast.

Washington is well and truly in the throes of a season called ‘Change’. The faster we come to terms with it in India, the better for us.

At the Nuclear Security Summit, the writing was on the wall. Question is, are we prepared, and more importantly, do we have a winning gameplan?

Frankly, I was surprised – and pleasantly so – that New Delhi decided to stand by Iran in the wake of clear and present pressure from Washington to toe its line on Tehran.

But almost in the same breath, I was disappointed to see our leaders rub their hands in glee, when Pakistan was admonished for its terrible nuclear proliferation record.

If we are to be seen and accepted as a responsible and noteworthy participant at the UN high table, we must rise above, and far beyond, our little pleasures in seeing Islamabad squirm. For the stakes are far higher, and the issues much more international, and important.

Where is the strength of conviction and leadership that we exhibited, when we called America’s bluff on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, terming it biased and unjust, thus refusing to sign it? Where is that depth of insight, and that unfailing sense of right and wrong, that led us to co-found the Non-Aligned Movement?

Today, because we choose to obfuscate about our nuclear arsenal, when we hem and haw about the preparedness of our nuclear deterrent, because we fail to stand up for ourselves and our convictions, we find ourselves unwittingly on the same side of the stick as Iran, North-Korea and Pakistan, in Obama’s Nuclear Posture Review.

To those who say, “Well, it’s just a policy document”, to them I say, that’s exactly what policy documents are meant to do – let the world know where you stand, on what issue.

President Obama’s priority to exit Afghanistan, while leaving it in a relatively stable situation – even if that entails handing over central control to Pakistan – is already on display. He has a domestic audience to pander to, and lets not forget, what he’s doing, is in America’s national interest. Pakistan and at least the Army-ISI combine would like to believe, that it is in Pakistan’s national interest, to try to exercise some level of control and influence over Afghanistan. It’s another matter, that the Afghans can’t really stand the Pakistanis and it’ll only be a matter of time before Kabul tells Islamabad where to get off. President Karzai of course, realises that he needs to play ball with the Americans, while also making room for not-so-acceptable deals with erstwhile notorious sections of Afghanistan’s technicolour fabric. That after all, is in Afghanistan’s national interest.

Trade and investments notwithstanding, America will drop India in the blink of an eye, in favour of China, the moment the Korean peninsula hots up. Given Kim Jong-il’s failing health and the complications of justifying a successor, hot up it will, in the Korean peninsula.

Where does all this leave us, and Indian national interest?

We seemed to know how to play the game with the Republicans – even if we’ve always maintained that they’re better friends of India than the Democrats. But with the new dispensation in Washington and Obama at the helm of affairs, we’re fast running out of ideas.

The game is afoot.

Let’s stop this obfuscation!

US-PAK Nuke Deal: Why India Should Welcome It

The Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement took years to turn into reality.

It did, because it served multiple interests, in multiple countries.

It did, to a great extent, because President George Bush decided it was time for India to come in from the cold. And he did everything and more, to ensure that not only his staff in the Whitehouse and State Department, but also reticent countries in the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group saw his point and agreed with him.

For India, a relatively good track record (except for our two nuclear tests) and an absolutely spick-and-span track record on nuclear proliferation, helped greatly. Of course, together with the fact that India happens to be the most tolerant and stable democratic force in the region. Not to forget also, that India has the largest and fastest growing market, making it a destination of choice and logic for American capitalist interests.

But if you look at the fine print, and the actions it has forced upon India over the past few years, you come to see that re-entering into international nuclear trade, has done wonders for transparency and accountability in our nuclear establishment.

The Indo-US civilian nuclear deal has got us to separate our civilian and strategic nuclear assets, clarifying what is where and intended for what use.

It has also got us to enter into safeguarded reprocessing agreements, streamline our nuclear industry (even if it is Government run and controlled), and yes, even move decisively towards a Nuclear Liability Bill.

This of course is in addition to the obvious benefit to India’s long-term energy basket and the obvious environmental benefits.

Last but not the least, by opening our nuclear industry and nuclear cycle to stringent international safeguards and inspections, we have allowed transparency at levels like never before.

Now lets consider Pakistan.

Years spent in the shadow of India’s largely indigenous nuclear industry, have forced Pakistan to allow the likes of A Q Khan – and his Khan Research Laboratories – a free run for decades.

Today as Pakistan seeks the crown of credibility, when Islamabad pleads for a copycat civilian nuclear deal with America, and an international status as a responsible nuclear power, it is time to reflect on what these really mean for a country that has been a rogue nuclear state for much of its existence.

Lets also consider the impact of undergoing a transformative process of accountability and transparency – which would be necessary to be eligible for international civilian nuclear trade – on Pakistan’s rogue nuclear establishment.

If Pakistan can bring A Q Khan and his Khan Research Laboratories, together with the rogue elements in its nuclear establishment to book, in a transparent and verifiable manner; if Islamabad can convince the Army and the ISI to allow him to reveal the highly complicated clandestine nuclear proliferation routes he fed and how he helped countries like North Korea and Libya move closer to nuclear weapons, it will be a big step forward towards acceptability.

There’s been wide speculation for a while now, that Pakistan has successfully – with American technological assistance – managed to separate the trigger mechanisms from its nuclear weapons and install safety protocols for the same. There’s also been talk of America helping to raise, train and equip a special Pakistani force to secure and protect its nuclear establishments and assets.

Now, if Islamabad can separate its civilians and strategic assets, while also declaring them formally; if Pakistan’s leadership can be persuaded to accept stringent international and IAEA/US-led verification processes; if Islamabad can be persuaded to sign the NPT and CTBT, would it not herald a new era of relative nuclear stability and security in the region?

If the world’s primary source of nuclear weapons and technology proliferation is reformed and brought in line under stringent international inspection regimes, would it not substantially lead to a much more stable South Asia, and a more stable and secure world?

If the US can examine the option of allowing a civilian nuclear programme in Iran, with reprocessing of spent fuel by a thrid country, why not Pakistan, which is perhaps America’s most valuable ally in the War On Terror?

Who knows? Perhaps one day, given the needs of Pakistan’s electricity grid, New Delhi may very well end up selling indigenous PHWRs to Pakistan!

Now wouldn’t that be sweet!