Pranab’s Chaos Theory?

In a few hours from now, the UPA’s constituents will meet in the wake of a bruising 48 hours that has seen a calculated whittling away of Sonia Gandhi’s position of sway. On the agenda will be a choice. Not as much a choice of a consensus candidate for the Presidential election, but a choice of direction in which to head.

Consider the turn of events.

Mamata Banerjee, a UPA ally, who till 24 hours back, was just another dissatisfied constituent of UPA-II, demanding a rather uncommon and questionably unconstitutional waiver of fiscal assistance, in the form of a three-year waiver on interest on debt. Yes, she had run through the Left in West Bengal, unceremoniously uprooting their decades-old rule in one fell swoop. Yes, she had swept the bye-elections and the local body elections in West Bengal. Yes, she ought to have been given more respect by the UPA leadership. Instead, she and her Ministers had to resort to a few dozen trips to Delhi, for meeting after meeting with the everyone in the corridors of power, from Sonia Gandhi to the Prime Minister to the Planning Commission. And all the while, as her frustrations grew visibly, and the media – and government – treated her with increasing amusement, one man never lost touch. In fact, on occasion, he would fly down to Kolkata to pacify her when her usual combative statements would lead to her going into a huff. A man who many would point out, played a willing mentor to her, as she prepared a platform from which to take on the Left in Bengal, starting with Nandigram way back in 2007. Her political astuteness grew, in leaps and bounds, especially as the 2011 Assembly elections grew closer, and even still, many wondered about her political transformation.

In many ways, they are similar political creatures. Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee. One a seasoned veteran of many a political battle over the decades, well versed with the intricacies of the sinuous corridors of power in New Delhi.  The other a seasoned veteran of many a political battle in the villages and towns of India’s Communist citadel. The man who stood up in Parliament at the peak of the Anna movement, and somehow managed to tame his brethren across party lines. The woman who showed the wise old Bhadrolok in Writers Building how it’s done, when she walked to office on her first day as Chief Minister, surrounded by lakhs of her supporters.

Indeed, they both are politicians whose time has come. But more importantly, in a season where leadership is being ‘wrested’ and not ‘conferred’, they are both leaders who are aware that the time is NOW.

With the Congress weakened by its own allies and the Sonia-Manmohan combination failing to evolve in step with the changing political scenario, Pranab Mukherjee has evolved from being the Mr Fix-It-All for Sonia Gandhi, into a very real power center in the UPA. Perhaps, the only power center in the Government that matters today.

Sonia Gandhi’s health is certainly not what it used to be… and Rahul Gandhi is nowhere where he should be, politically. Sonia and her trusted lieutenants are fighting fires in every corner of the Congress estate, and the only real ‘Gandhi’ in sight is Priyanka, who herself is years away from coming into her own. Dr Manmohan Singh is a careerist and the title of President of India would fit very nicely into his resume.

All this put together creates a power vacuum in the government, and it was only a matter of time before the laws of nature kicked in.

Caught between a rock, a hard place, mushrooming fires and a failed political progeny, the Congress President could not afford to be seen as grudging an elevation to Pranab Mukherjee. Indeed, her move may well have stemmed more from a sense of self-preservation, and motherhood, rather than anything else. But what it has done, is force her hand.

Little surprise then, that when that moment finally arrived, Mamata Banerjee was at hand.

UPA’s Stick Approach Forces A ‘Civil’ Rethink

My right thumb!

“Unfortunate but unavoidable”, was how Prime Minister Manmohan Singh put it yesterday, when pushed to react to public outrage over the midnight raid by Delhi Police on the Ramlila Maidan, where Baba Ramdev was staging his satyagraha. Three words, which when coupled with Kapil Sibal’s ‘hurt and outrage’ expressed yesterday, seem to have settled the balance of power firmly in favour of the government. A government that is now in no mood to benevolently allow the politics of fasts to continue. The immediate fallout: The government frowning upon Anna Hazare’s proposed protest fast in support of Baba Ramdev at Jantar Mantar.

Simultaneously in Haridwar, Ramdev was in a conveniently forgiving mood. His brand of fast-politics has been repelled in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh by the UPA and Mayawati respectively. Faced with the ominous threat of multiple investigations into his organisation and its functioning by various Ministries of the government, Ramdev now says he has “followed his sanyasi dharma and forgiven the Prime Minister”.

The stick approach clearly seems to have worked for the UPA government, with Karnataka Lokayukta Justice Santosh Hedge now saying that the Civil Society Representatives will participate in negotiations with the government on the drafting of the Lokpal Bill on June 15, 16.

It’s the right approach by Anna Hazare and his followers. The representatives of civil society have won a hard-fought victory by forcing the government to the negotiations table over the Lokpal Bill. Their place, now, is across the negotiations table and not on the streets on New Delhi. Their responsibility is to accurately reflect the opinions and demands of the civil society that they represent, in the negotiations over the Bill. The only way they can be true to their cause, is by participating in the negotiations, not boycotting it. The stakes for civil society are too big to be frittered away in petty politicking and childish boycotts.

And involved engagement of the UPA Government with the aim of protecting civil society’s interests are paramount and must remain so.

But these are also testing times for the UPA Government. Giddy with the success of its stick-approach having worked, the government now needs to ensure that it doesn’t gloat in victory. The UPA must remember that it is a popularly elected government of the people, for the people and by the people.  Acts like imposing Section 144 in New Delhi and refusing permission to Anna Hazare, to fast in protest at Jantar Mantar, are signals of the government tottering dangerously on impinging civil liberties.

Governance is as much about acting in national interest as about protecting the people’s interests, and the UPA will need to prove through the Lokpal Bill and its decisions on the black money issue, that it is truly a progressive alliance, equally adept at both.

Storm Clouds Gathering Over Raisina Hill?

Waiting to exhale!

There’s a storm brewing in the Ministry of External Affairs.

Rarely have I seen the Foreign Service in such a twist. And not without cause, if the reasons they cite are anything to go by.

Most of their ire, so far is aimed across Raisina Hill, at the Ministry of Home Affairs. In particular, P Chidambaram, the Home Minister, who most in the MEA feel, has become a law unto himself.

“I knew he was arrogant and liked to rule over his minions,” an MEA official told me, “But now his arrogance has begun to affect the credibility of the country.” He was talking about the series of ridiculously embarrassing blunders in the list of India’s 50-most wanted, that had been handed over to Pakistan with much flourish. “Together with the Samjhauta case on a platter in the name of India’s ‘secular’ credentials, we have completely lost our credibility and cannot hold Pakistan convincingly accountable for anything in the future,” he said, adding, “Such was the arrogance of Chidambaram, that he did not even bother to consult the MEA on the list before it was handed over to Pakistani officials. Today, there is not a single of his officers who is willing to speak up. Such is his lordship’s impact,” he added.

A lot of the frustration within the MEA is also about being caught with too many masters to be accountable to. From day-1 in UPA-II, it’s been the norm that the PMO takes the big calls on India’s external relations. In fact, at his first press interaction after taking oath as External Affairs Minister in UPA-II, I asked SM Krishna what his mandate was, because the road-map and decision making process of the MEA had been taken over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. His answer was a wry one. He said: “My job is to play second fiddle to the Prime Minister”. That answer did send attending IFS officers into a bit of a fiddle, but Krishna had hit the nail on the head. With Pranab Mukherjee moving ministries, Krishna wasn’t expected to be ‘strong enough’ to chart India’s foreign policy agenda. It was even more disconcerting then, to see 2 Ministers of State being added to the MEA, when the Minister himself had little work to dispense.

Things became further complicated for Foreign Service officers, when former Foreign Secretary Shivshanker Menon was appointed National Security Advisor. The highly respected and admired IFS officer, though accepted as the best man for the job, would in time come to further overshadow the MEA. Not that he’s making any wrong moves like Chidambaram.

But when all these factors that affecting the MEA are put together, they focus the spotlight on a weakened and frustrated Foreign Service cadre. The same cadre that serves as the first line of engagement with foreign governments. The same cadre that will have to engage with the Pakistanis at the end of the month, during talks on the Siachen issue.

More disconcerting however, are the indications of a an increasingly weakening PMO. Citing an example to this effect, another senior official in the MEA told me: “Look at the manner in which Chidambaram went against the PMO’s decision to grant former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf a visa recently. The PMO decided to grant him a visa, but Chidambaram rejected it, saying, ‘My conscience does not allow it.’ Even the PMO was over-ruled without a second thought.”

Another MEA official recounted the embarrassment within the PMO, over ignorance that a letter of rejection had been sent to US bidders Boeing and Lockheed Martin, in the MMRCA deal. It was only when the Americans expressed themselves rather plainly, that the PMO came to know of the Defense Ministry’s decision.

And perhaps the most embarrassing example of just how shoddy and ill-prepared the Home Ministry has made us appear in our transactions with Pakistan, is what happened at the recent India-Pakistan Home Secretary level talks in March. Home Secretary GK Pillai and his team were pressing for a ‘Judicial Commission’ on the Mumbai Terror Attacks to visit Pakistan for further investigations, when the Interior Secretary of Pakistan, Qamar Zaman Chaudhary pointed out that India hadn’t laid the requisite legal groundwork to warrant a ‘Judicial’ Commission, even though Pakistan was willing to accept such a demand. As a consequence, a highly embarrassed Indian side had to hurriedly drop the word ‘Judicial’ from the joint press release and state that India would send a plain ‘Commission’ to Pakistan instead. The text from the Joint Statement issued on March 29, 2011, is pasted below:

“7. Pakistani side provided updates on the ongoing trial and investigation in Pakistan on the Mumbai Terror Attacks. Pakistan conveyed its readiness, in principle, based upon the principle of comity and reciprocity, to entertain a Commission from India with respect to Mumbai Terror Attack investigations. Modalities and composition in this connection will be worked out through diplomatic channels. Dates for the visit of the Judicial Commission from Pakistan in connection with Mumbai attack trial will be conveyed by India within four-six weeks. NIA and FIA will continue to cooperate in the Mumbai Terror Attack investigations.”

It’s getting stormy on the hill. Now wonder when and where lightning will strike.

Three Months Of Opportunity In Kathmandu

"We the political parties of Nepal..."

It took hours of tense, hectic back-and-forth negotiations between major Nepali parties to finally agree to agree, and come up with a 5-point agenda to be achieved within a fixed period of three months. The agreement co-signed by Prachanda, for the UCPN-Maoist, Sushil Koirala for the Nepali Congress and JN Khanal for the CPN-UML, lays out that the parties will:

* Complete the fundamental tasks of the peace process within three months

* Prepare the first draft of the constitution through the Constituent Assembly (CA) within three months

* Implement effectively the past agreements reached with the Madhesi Front, including the one to make the Nepal Army (NA) inclusive

* Extend the Constituent Assembly’s term by three months

* And that the Prime Minister will resign, paving the way for the formation of a unity government based on national consensus.

The agreement came in right time, calming the frayed nerves of a nation tottering on the brink of internal chaos and social unrest. Frustration at the high-handed and short-sighted manner in which political parties had been bickering with each other, causing endless delays to the process of Constitution drafting and government formation, had spilled out onto Kathmandu’s streets. Thousands gave vent to their frustration, even as the leaders of the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML tried to stare each other down.

A day before the May 28 deadline, Maoist leader Prachanda backtracked on his promise of handing over control of the Maoist armoury to the Special Committee overseeing the surrender, disbanding and integration of the Maoist army with the Nepali Army. His action forced the Nepali Congress and other parties to backtrack in similar fashion, hardening their stand, refusing to hand over the reins of power, plunging Kathmandu back into the depths of a political stalemate.

But while Kathmandu may have bought Nepal three more months of time – and relative peace – New Delhi should keep its eyes peeled and its ear to the ground.

Trouble has been brewing, with the Maoists increasingly agitated over what they call India’s needless interference in Kathmandu’s matters. What has till recently been restricted to propaganda and threats, has increasingly turned into targeted violence on the ground against Indian interests.

On the 22nd of May, a group of about 60 armed Maoists attacked the site of the 900 MW hydel project of the GMR group in upper Karnali in Nepal. In a span of a little over 90 minutes, havoc was wreaked on the site. Workers – both Indian and Nepali – were attacked,  property damaged, equipment gutted. An Indian and a Nepali were admitted to hospital in serious condition. The damage caused was estimated at above 1.5 crore rupees. The damage included the complete gutting of the workers’ colony at the site.

It was in fact, the second attack on this particular site within weeks.  The same GMR site office was attacked by Maoists on the 16th of April, and the issue taken up by External Affairs Minister SM Krishna with the Maoists and Nepali Government  during his visit to Kathmandu from April 20-22.

The Maoists and Prachanda in particular, have for long now, been labelling India as evil incarnate, pitting Nepali against Nepali to serve its own regional hegemonic intentions. With the power shifts we are witnessing in Kathmandu, accusations like these are expected to get even more shrill.

To quote from an updated fact-sheet on Indo-Nepal relations:  “Today nearly two-thirds of Nepal’s foreign trade is with India and nearly 45% of Nepal’s foreign direct investment comes from India.  Nearly six million Nepali nationals work in India contributing to the growth of remittances in Nepal.  40% of Nepal’s tourists come from India and as number of Indian tourists traveling abroad grows from the current 12 million to 50 million by 2020, many more of them will include Nepal in their list of preferred destinations.  In February last year, the Air Services Agreement between our two countries have been revised and seat capacity have been increased from 6000 per week in either direction to 30000 seats per week for six metro stations in India with an additional unlimited seat capacity from another 21 cities in India.  From 30 flights per week between the two countries five years ago, the number of flights today has more than doubled.

In the last two years, we have increased the number of scholarships for Nepali students from 800 to nearly 1800 today.  Of these, 1100 scholarships are for students studying in Nepal while the rest are for studies in India covering a range of disciplines from medicine, engineering, management, agricultural and veterinary sciences, traditional Indian systems of medicine, music and fine arts, cyber law, etc.

Our economic cooperation programme has also grown rapidly.  Under the Small Development Scheme there over 380 projects either completed or currently under way at a total cost of over NRs.665 crores, covering almost all districts of Nepal.  These include schools, multiple campuses, hospitals, community centres, roads, bridges and other community infrastructure.  In addition, there are major projects on which work has begun – development of railway infrastructure at five border points along India-Nepal border, development of 1600 kilometers of road infrastructure in the Terai where Phase-I accounting for 19 roads totaling 605 kilometers has already begun; development of four Integrated Check Posts along India-Nepal border where work on two of them, Raxaul-Birgunj and Jogbani-Biratnagar has begun; the 200 bed state of the art Emergency and Trauma Centre at Bir Hospital; Manmohan Adhikari Polytechnic at Hetauda, etc.  All this brings our total assistance outlay to over NRs.50 billion.”

It’s an admirable relationship, fostering co-dependency and mutual interest. But if the Maoists are not actively wooed too, how long will this bonhomie last, given their march to power and their increasing proximity to Beijing? Replacing the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty between New Delhi and Kathmandu has topped the agenda of the Maoists for some time now, with demands for a more equitable balance of power. India’s substantial investments and engagements with and in Nepal, still pale in comparison to what the Chinese are willing, able and will be only to happy to provide to Kathmandu, in return for a similar, if not more intricately woven relationship.

South Block is well aware of the growing proximity between Prachanda and Beijing. It is time to dig deep, think out of the box, and stop talking down to Kathmandu.

Talk clear and straight to Obama, Mr Prime Minister!

It’s a little after 11 am and President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have just had the customary handshake photo-op at the historic Hyderabad House.

So far, it’s been a historic visit in terms of how a US President has approached New India. $10 billion dollars in deals and close to 60,000 American jobs have been saved and created back home. Many more, the President hopes will be created in India as more and more American companies export to India and more and more Americans come to work in India. More importantly, the business deals have been a much needed boost for America’s core industries – whatever is left of them anyway, given that close to 70 percent of American jobs outsourced are from the manufacturing sector and go to China. Little wonder then, that top Republican leader John McCain called for Americans to stop demonising India for stealing American jobs. At the end of the day, however, it’s been an all-important message that an embattled and substantially weakened Obama has sent back home to his constituency. That he’s gotten the job done as he promised he would.

Much has been made of the President Obama’s and First Lady Michelle Obama’s charm offensive. I am not surprised. It is in fact par for the course for Brand Obama, who is today in India, the First Salesman of America.  This is not the America that we’ve grown up idolising. This is an America that has been humbled as much by the economic rise of China, as it has been betrayed by Pakistan. This is a President who has as much been frustrated by Mullah Omar and his gang of merry Taliban, and Osama and the ever-growing  al Qaeda, as he has been introduced to the realities of West Asia and the vital importance of Iran and India.

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sits President Obama down for some straight talk – which I hope he does – it is vital that we leverage our economic advantages in the region, to secure our strategic interests.

Let me say right here, that I don’t expect Obama to say much against Pakistan on Indian soil. Islamabad may not be as reliable an ally of America in the War on Terror, but it is where America’s biggest enemies will be cornered for a very long time to come. It is also – most importantly – the little corner of the world, where America would like its biggest enemies to remain cornered for a very long time to come. Have you wondered why the al Qaeda has been recruiting from countries where citizens don’t need visas to go to the US? Washington has realised that the Pakistani Army and the ISI are highly unreliable allies in the War on Terror. At the same time, Obama knows that American money can buy off large sections of the Pakistani Army and ISI, but there will still consciously remain pockets in both establishments, that will not be allowed to be bought over by the Americans. And it will be these very pockets that will continue to foster and pose threats in the long run to America and its direct interests across the world. It wouldn’t really matter as much to America that Pakistan is cottoning up to China. America is doing the same for heaven’s sake. What really matters is getting the ‘real’ Pakistani establishment to keep Osama and his gang, and Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura and their merry men busy in the erstwhile FATA region and at best, eating into Pakistan’s structure. Which is not very good news for India, if you know what I mean!

Almost simultaneously – but a lot more inconspicuously – there has been a drastic change of track by America is Afghanistan.  All of a sudden, Tehran has – with America’s grudging blessings – been playing an overt role in attempts to secure and stabilise Afghanistan. What this is doing, is not only allowing Russia and Iran to play the counter-balance to Pakistan in Afghanistan, but also allow India – America’s beacon of democracy and stability in the region – to use its influence and understanding to bring Tehran around to a more ‘acceptable’ role and position of influence in the region.

Together with the silent but ever-growing Islamic superpower, Turkey, Iran is in my mind, being brought in to the Afghanistan equation, in a far more pragmatic manner now. It is an axis of power that cannot be ignored or brushed aside, and it is always better to engage constructively with Turkey and Iran, than to try and isolate them. Either which way, it’s never been the people of Iran that the Americans – or Israelis – have been against, but their leaders like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who incidentally, is fast becoming a bit of an embarrassment even for the Ayatollahs. Let us also not forget, that while Afghanistan is vital to our long term plans to keep Pakistan in check, Iran is out gateway to the markets of Central Asia.

India must also realise that America is neither in a position, nor will want to actively foster and support India as the counterbalance to China in the region. It is something we must do ourselves – and mind you, something America will certainly not be averse to!

It is hence time for straight talk Mr Prime Minister. It is time to leverage our markets, our economic growth, our democratic stability and our civilisational influence in the region, to further our strategic interests in the region and beyond.

And there, Mr Prime Minister, lies the rub! It’s time for some straight talk.