Pranab’s Chaos Theory?

In a few hours from now, the UPA’s constituents will meet in the wake of a bruising 48 hours that has seen a calculated whittling away of Sonia Gandhi’s position of sway. On the agenda will be a choice. Not as much a choice of a consensus candidate for the Presidential election, but a choice of direction in which to head.

Consider the turn of events.

Mamata Banerjee, a UPA ally, who till 24 hours back, was just another dissatisfied constituent of UPA-II, demanding a rather uncommon and questionably unconstitutional waiver of fiscal assistance, in the form of a three-year waiver on interest on debt. Yes, she had run through the Left in West Bengal, unceremoniously uprooting their decades-old rule in one fell swoop. Yes, she had swept the bye-elections and the local body elections in West Bengal. Yes, she ought to have been given more respect by the UPA leadership. Instead, she and her Ministers had to resort to a few dozen trips to Delhi, for meeting after meeting with the everyone in the corridors of power, from Sonia Gandhi to the Prime Minister to the Planning Commission. And all the while, as her frustrations grew visibly, and the media – and government – treated her with increasing amusement, one man never lost touch. In fact, on occasion, he would fly down to Kolkata to pacify her when her usual combative statements would lead to her going into a huff. A man who many would point out, played a willing mentor to her, as she prepared a platform from which to take on the Left in Bengal, starting with Nandigram way back in 2007. Her political astuteness grew, in leaps and bounds, especially as the 2011 Assembly elections grew closer, and even still, many wondered about her political transformation.

In many ways, they are similar political creatures. Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee. One a seasoned veteran of many a political battle over the decades, well versed with the intricacies of the sinuous corridors of power in New Delhi.  The other a seasoned veteran of many a political battle in the villages and towns of India’s Communist citadel. The man who stood up in Parliament at the peak of the Anna movement, and somehow managed to tame his brethren across party lines. The woman who showed the wise old Bhadrolok in Writers Building how it’s done, when she walked to office on her first day as Chief Minister, surrounded by lakhs of her supporters.

Indeed, they both are politicians whose time has come. But more importantly, in a season where leadership is being ‘wrested’ and not ‘conferred’, they are both leaders who are aware that the time is NOW.

With the Congress weakened by its own allies and the Sonia-Manmohan combination failing to evolve in step with the changing political scenario, Pranab Mukherjee has evolved from being the Mr Fix-It-All for Sonia Gandhi, into a very real power center in the UPA. Perhaps, the only power center in the Government that matters today.

Sonia Gandhi’s health is certainly not what it used to be… and Rahul Gandhi is nowhere where he should be, politically. Sonia and her trusted lieutenants are fighting fires in every corner of the Congress estate, and the only real ‘Gandhi’ in sight is Priyanka, who herself is years away from coming into her own. Dr Manmohan Singh is a careerist and the title of President of India would fit very nicely into his resume.

All this put together creates a power vacuum in the government, and it was only a matter of time before the laws of nature kicked in.

Caught between a rock, a hard place, mushrooming fires and a failed political progeny, the Congress President could not afford to be seen as grudging an elevation to Pranab Mukherjee. Indeed, her move may well have stemmed more from a sense of self-preservation, and motherhood, rather than anything else. But what it has done, is force her hand.

Little surprise then, that when that moment finally arrived, Mamata Banerjee was at hand.

A Cross-Dressing Yogi Does Not A Hazare Make

Ramdev's 'Dupatta' politics

Forgive me if this treads heavy on your yogic sensibilities, but there was something intrinsically ludicrous when cross-dressing yogi Baba Ramdev launched himself from his perch at the Ramlila Maidan in New Delhi, into a gaggle of women and senior citizens – all to save himself from the Delhi Police.

Here was a man who had been wooed by the high and mighty of the UPA. A man received at the Delhi airport by no less than four of the Congress’ top leaders, ready to kow tow before his whims and fancies. Here was a man whom the RSS and Govindacharya had praised for his gumption and willingness to tread where the BJP has feared to step.

But shortly past the midnight hour, like Cinderella’s pumpkin chariot, Ramdev’s beanstalk began to quietly whither away. Perhaps it was the giddy heights of swimming with the power sharks of the capital, that eventually did the right honourable Baba in.

There is no doubt that Ramdev has political ambitions. Ambitions that at one point had drawn such praise from the RSS, that his yogic halo had outshone a blundering BJP stricken by internal strife. There were whispers in the corridors about how the next elections in Uttarakhand would perhaps pitchfork Ramdev from the yoga mat to the political throne. Verily, it was a scenario that had many in the BJP quivering in the state.

Suddenly, somehow, civil society seemed to have forgotten what the Ramdev phenomenon had been all about over the years. Here was a man who has a while back, claimed to have developed a cure for AIDS and for cancer. Here indeed, was a man who said homosexuality was a “bad habit”. A yoga guru who swore he could “cure homosexuality with yoga asanas”. Here was a man who had miraculously morphed into the ‘new age’ poster boy of civil society, bring saffron fervour to the common man’s cause in a manner that only a Baba Ramdev could.

And all of a sudden, Ramdev could do no wrong. So much so, that even a reticent Anna Hazare found himself hitching a ride on the Ramdev-wagon.

For me that was the tragedy. Allow me to speak my mind. I find something intrinsically fishy about Ramdev. I find him a slippery character. I don’t have a problem with him taking up the common man’s cause. It is a just cause and will work miracles for our economy if the fabled black billions come home to roost. Somehow, I can’t seem to bring myself to trust him. And its got nothing to do with his saffron robes or his Hindi. I have a problem with his reasons for taking up the anti-black money cause.

The UPA government and the Congress in particular, has not yet given me a single plausible reason for not revealing the names on the ‘black’ list handed to them by Swiss authorities. Their reticence smacks of an amateurish attempt at shielding the guilty. Even the Supreme Court was unforgiving in its opinion about the UPA’s reasons for not revealing the ‘black’ list.

But I’d rather put my faith in the unassuming Anna Hazare and his warriors, when it comes to fighting my cause – be it the Lokpal Bill, black money or anti-corruption. When Hazare puts his name to a cause, chances are I will be ready to consider it. Perhaps, even support it. Hazare too speaks in Hindi. His means are simple. So are his ideas. Perhaps too simple. But isn’t that simplicity what we should be looking for in our search for solutions to seemingly complex problems?

Such is Anna’s credibility, that it wouldn’t make a sliver of a difference if he were to ditch his white kurta and Gandhi topi, in favour of saffron robes. And I’m sure, he’s puritan enough, not to choose to slip into a salwar-kurta at the first sight of the police. Now that’s something I buy!

 

Storm Clouds Gathering Over Raisina Hill?

Waiting to exhale!

There’s a storm brewing in the Ministry of External Affairs.

Rarely have I seen the Foreign Service in such a twist. And not without cause, if the reasons they cite are anything to go by.

Most of their ire, so far is aimed across Raisina Hill, at the Ministry of Home Affairs. In particular, P Chidambaram, the Home Minister, who most in the MEA feel, has become a law unto himself.

“I knew he was arrogant and liked to rule over his minions,” an MEA official told me, “But now his arrogance has begun to affect the credibility of the country.” He was talking about the series of ridiculously embarrassing blunders in the list of India’s 50-most wanted, that had been handed over to Pakistan with much flourish. “Together with the Samjhauta case on a platter in the name of India’s ‘secular’ credentials, we have completely lost our credibility and cannot hold Pakistan convincingly accountable for anything in the future,” he said, adding, “Such was the arrogance of Chidambaram, that he did not even bother to consult the MEA on the list before it was handed over to Pakistani officials. Today, there is not a single of his officers who is willing to speak up. Such is his lordship’s impact,” he added.

A lot of the frustration within the MEA is also about being caught with too many masters to be accountable to. From day-1 in UPA-II, it’s been the norm that the PMO takes the big calls on India’s external relations. In fact, at his first press interaction after taking oath as External Affairs Minister in UPA-II, I asked SM Krishna what his mandate was, because the road-map and decision making process of the MEA had been taken over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. His answer was a wry one. He said: “My job is to play second fiddle to the Prime Minister”. That answer did send attending IFS officers into a bit of a fiddle, but Krishna had hit the nail on the head. With Pranab Mukherjee moving ministries, Krishna wasn’t expected to be ‘strong enough’ to chart India’s foreign policy agenda. It was even more disconcerting then, to see 2 Ministers of State being added to the MEA, when the Minister himself had little work to dispense.

Things became further complicated for Foreign Service officers, when former Foreign Secretary Shivshanker Menon was appointed National Security Advisor. The highly respected and admired IFS officer, though accepted as the best man for the job, would in time come to further overshadow the MEA. Not that he’s making any wrong moves like Chidambaram.

But when all these factors that affecting the MEA are put together, they focus the spotlight on a weakened and frustrated Foreign Service cadre. The same cadre that serves as the first line of engagement with foreign governments. The same cadre that will have to engage with the Pakistanis at the end of the month, during talks on the Siachen issue.

More disconcerting however, are the indications of a an increasingly weakening PMO. Citing an example to this effect, another senior official in the MEA told me: “Look at the manner in which Chidambaram went against the PMO’s decision to grant former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf a visa recently. The PMO decided to grant him a visa, but Chidambaram rejected it, saying, ‘My conscience does not allow it.’ Even the PMO was over-ruled without a second thought.”

Another MEA official recounted the embarrassment within the PMO, over ignorance that a letter of rejection had been sent to US bidders Boeing and Lockheed Martin, in the MMRCA deal. It was only when the Americans expressed themselves rather plainly, that the PMO came to know of the Defense Ministry’s decision.

And perhaps the most embarrassing example of just how shoddy and ill-prepared the Home Ministry has made us appear in our transactions with Pakistan, is what happened at the recent India-Pakistan Home Secretary level talks in March. Home Secretary GK Pillai and his team were pressing for a ‘Judicial Commission’ on the Mumbai Terror Attacks to visit Pakistan for further investigations, when the Interior Secretary of Pakistan, Qamar Zaman Chaudhary pointed out that India hadn’t laid the requisite legal groundwork to warrant a ‘Judicial’ Commission, even though Pakistan was willing to accept such a demand. As a consequence, a highly embarrassed Indian side had to hurriedly drop the word ‘Judicial’ from the joint press release and state that India would send a plain ‘Commission’ to Pakistan instead. The text from the Joint Statement issued on March 29, 2011, is pasted below:

“7. Pakistani side provided updates on the ongoing trial and investigation in Pakistan on the Mumbai Terror Attacks. Pakistan conveyed its readiness, in principle, based upon the principle of comity and reciprocity, to entertain a Commission from India with respect to Mumbai Terror Attack investigations. Modalities and composition in this connection will be worked out through diplomatic channels. Dates for the visit of the Judicial Commission from Pakistan in connection with Mumbai attack trial will be conveyed by India within four-six weeks. NIA and FIA will continue to cooperate in the Mumbai Terror Attack investigations.”

It’s getting stormy on the hill. Now wonder when and where lightning will strike.