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Can The Congress Survive Telangana And Jagan In Andhra?

Congress can't miss this bus

When the Congress High Command dispatched Ghulam Nabi Azad to Hyderabad this week, Congress MLAs were told he would be talking to them about two main problems that the party was faced with. The first, was the Telangana agitation and the looming deadline in June, by which time the Congress would have to make its stand clear. The second was the humiliating defeat in Kadapa at the hands of Jagan Mohan Reddy and the question of how to contain him.

Perhaps the exercise would have made Azad realise that matters have come to such a pass in Andhra Pradesh, that both these issues have become closely connected. In fact, together, they now have a direct bearing on the Congress party’s future integrity in the state.

But first things first. Andhra Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy is understood to have told Ghulam Nabi Azad that there were members of his Cabinet, who were secretly reporting to Jagan Mohan Reddy.  To anyone who’s been following Andhra politics, this is nothing new. It is common knowledge that most of the present crop of Congress MLAs in Andhra Pradesh were hand-picked and groomed by the late YSR, Jagan’s father. They also owe much of their present status to his largesse. Critics of YSR (and now Jagan) say, they also owe most of their ‘wealth’ to him.

It wasn’t in the least surprising then, to see the large number of Andhra MLAs propose Jagan’s name for the Chief Minister’s post, after his father’s tragic death. It wasn’t surprising even, to watch the Congress leadership wringing their hands collectively in utter helplessness, as Jagan towered over all else in the state. With his record-breaking victory margin in the Kadapa bye-election, he has only become even more of a threat to the Congress’ integrity in the state.

So, when Kiran Reddy complains of Cabinet Ministers reporting to Jagan, he should look first at those closest to him – his advisors. Among them, Neelakanthapuram Raghuveera Reddy, the Revenue Minister, who incidentally, was among the first to propose Jagan Mohan’s name for the post of Chief Minister after his father’s death. For the moment though, the names understood to be on top of the hit-list are Vasanth Kumar (Tourism Minister), D Prasada Rao (Roads and Buildings Minister) and B Satyanarayana (Transport Minister).

Azad has his job cut out for him. The malaise appears to be the norm in the Andhra Congress when it comes to party MLAs sleeping with the enemy.

Meanwhile, Telangana is back on the Congress’ radar, with an impressive gathering of politicians and activists sending out a strong message to the party leadership, from Jantar Mantar in the national capital today. June 1 is the deadline for a “favourable announcement” on the creation of Telangana by the Congress, and the party leadership will find it terribly difficult to buy more time, or avoid a direct confrontation with its own MPs and MLAs on the issue.

The Congress is caught in a Catch-22 situation on Telangana. Even if it does decide to carve out the state from Andhra Pradesh, it will not be able to capitulate on the move, as it hasn’t been associated with the Telangana movement like the TRS has. Past experiments like that of Jharkhand and Uttaranchal have scarcely yielded any results for the Congress. Telangana will also endlessly complicate the Congress’s Parliamentary calculations, as it isn’t clear just how many from the 17 possible Parliamentary seats from Telangana the Congress can win. The creation of Telanganawill also have a backlash on the Congress when it comes to the question of the remaining 25 seats from the Andhra and Rayalseema regions, further impacting the Congress’ possible strength.

When you consider the present situation in Andhra Pradesh, with Jagan Mohan going from strength to strength, and the internal divide within the Congress deepening with every false move by the party leadership, Telangana could very well prove to be the one strand of thread that finally unravels the Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

Karnataka: Nothing Personal About Such Politics

And just like that, they’re “friends” again. Karnataka Governor Hans Raj Bhardwaj and embattled Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa were all about PDA (public display of affection), at a public function in Karnataka. Even as behind the scenes, the hectic peace-brokering continues.

With Bhardwaj admitting that Yedyurappa did in fact have a “massive majority”, the hugs, handshakes and smiles were on display for all who bothered to see, that the hatchet had been buried. For the moment.

A senior BJP MP from Karnataka told me, it was a triumph for democracy. After all, the ego battle between the two had brought governance to a standstill. I in turn pointed out that governance had been crippled in Karnataka long before the Yeddy-Bhardwaj ego battle had even begun. Like the Bellary brothers for instance, who had made life hell for Yeddy, or the many corruption allgations, or even the rebel ranks within the BJP, that had almost succeeded in toppling the first ever BJP government in south India. The BJP’s problems were, after all, more from within than from without. My MP friend responded, saying, “It is a democracy and in a democracy, one must never rule out the chances of a person’s change of heart.” Obviously referring to the change of heart by the 11 rebel BJP MLAs, who have returned to the BJP’s fold in Karnataka, reposing their faith in Yeddyurappa’s Chief Ministership. Fair enough, but somehow, I don’t get the sense that the basic underlying problems within the BJP in Karnataka have been resolved. If anything, they’ve been pacified for the moment, and will remain quiet till the next opportune moment presents itself. Yeddyurappa, and the party leadership’s dogged belief in his right to the Chief Ministership of Karnataka, are convenient and ample cash cow.

The sticking point however continues to be the Speaker, K G Bopaiah, who, according to the Supreme Court ruling, acted in haste, improperly disqualifying the 16 rebel BJP and independent MPs. I asked the BJP MP whether a change in the Speaker was “within the realm of possibility”, as a peace offering to the Governor, and he was willing to only go as far as to say that “corrective measures would be warranted”. Whether that means that Speaker K G Bopaiah will be shown the door or not, depends on how the BJP stands up to the Governor when push comes to shove.

Cloak-and-dagger politics

Governor Bhardwaj has clearly taken the first step in patching things up with Yeddyurappa in Karnataka, doing away with the prospect of another floor test in the next Assembly session, by publicly saying Yeddyurappa has a “massive majority”. If the BJP does not respond in kind, with action against Speaker Bopaiah as its peace offering, the situation could so easily go back to square one. And yet again, it will be the voters of Karnataka, who will be the losers. And this time, don’t be surprised if the voters take it personally.

Let Yeddyurappa ‘Govern’

It all began with a trust vote on the 6th of June, 2008, marking the official start of the first BJP government in south India, in Karnataka, led by BS Yeddyurappa. A man credited with being a work-horse of the BJP in south India, who single-handedly brought focus and purpose to the party in Karnataka. A politician who had gone through the long-haul of state politics, earning his undisputed right to become the first BJP Chief Minister of the party’s first government in South India.

Almost three years later, Yeddyurappa continues his battle with trust votes, thanks to political egos – both within his party, and within the Vidhana Soudha.

But slowly but surely, the longer Yeddyurappa battles on, the more he appears to be turning into a Kannada folk hero. A David who’s taken on one political Goliath after another, and lived to tell the tale. Yeddyurappa has a lot to be thankful for in the naked ambitions of sections within the Congress, and their dogged determination – together with that of the Gowdas – in wanting to see the BJP government fall. After all, there’s only so much your opponents can attack you, before you turn into the underdog whom people begin sympathising with, and rooting for.

Today, what’s happening in Karnataka, is not about governance, or the utter lack of it. It’s not about the many corruption rackets being traced back to Yeddyurappa and his family members. It’s not even about the Bellarybrothers and the mining mafia that’s robbing India of thousands of crores of rupees. It’s not even about constitutional propriety any more, or horse-trading, backroom wheeling-dealings or even political skullduggery. There is no finesse, no sophistication. What we have instead, is embarrassingly

'I have the mandate!'

shoddy and transparent political vindictiveness, and a needless ego battle between Yeddyurappa and Governor Hans Raj Bhardwaj. One that has overshadowed all else in Karnataka, including basic governance.

If till last week the BJP was accused of causing irrevocable damage to the brand value of India’s premier IT destination, today the Congress stands accused of  violating the Constitution’s soul, by scheming endlessly to deny Karnataka’s voters of their Constitutional right to governance.

If today, most of the 11 rebel and independent MLAs have ‘voluntarily’ chosen to return to the BJP’s fold, it reflects on their political opportunism and brand of politics. It does not change B S Yeddyurappa’s right to continue as the Chief Minister of Karnataka, or even, of the BJP to govern the state.

It is a pity that the Congress has chosen to engage in a game of base politics, when it has been totally unnecessary. When you’re someone who has party friends like Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa has, you don’t really need enemies like Governor HR Bhardwaj.

That’s something the Congress will do well to recognise.

Congress Cuts Its Nose in Kadapa, Spites Its Face, Gets Spanked

When the results were finally announced for the Kadapa bye-election in Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy had won hands down. With 6,92,251 votes actually. The Congress’ Duggireddy Lakshmireddi Ravindra Reddy got 1,46,579 votes, placing second, with the TDP’s Mysura Reddy MV coming in third, with 1,29,565 votes.

It was a no-contest to begin with. Kadapa is YSR-turf. A constituency that the late Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh spent almost Rs 40,000 crore on, nurturing it over the many years. It was also the place where Jagan Mohan Reddy was camped non-stop, for the past three months and more. The people of Kadapa had embraced the YSR family in warmth, love and support after the charismatic Chief Minister was killed in a tragic helicopter crash in September, 2009.

Why then, did the Congress decide to take on Jagan Mohan in Kadapa, in what was a futile contest to begin with? Why did the Congress wage so much of its prestige on taking on the YSR family on their home turf? Why did it despatch a seemingly endless stream of Ministers and high-profile party leaders to campaign against Jagan, when there was really not a hope in hell to pull off the historic upset it had planned?

A senior Congress leader from Andhra Pradesh told me: “The High Command is being misled by a bunch of Johnnies”, adding, “There was little or no process of consultation between the Central leadership and state leaders”. As a result, the plan to take on Jagan Mohan on his home turf in Kadapa was ill-conceived, mismanaged and improperly implemented.

For example, many of the Andhra Minister who sent to campaign against Jagan, ended up either directly or indirectly keeping the Jagan camp in the know of the behind the scenes planning in the Congress camp. Lets not forget that a large section of the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and a huge number of Cabinet Minister in the state, were till recently staunch supporters of Jagan Mohan. Though some did break away to join him eventually, many stayed back in the Congress camp, more because they felt the bread was buttered better by the Congress. But even if their allegiances with the Congress were temporary and of convenience, most of them still owed their political careers to the late YSR. The senior Congress leader cited the example of

That's what you get!

, the state Revenue Minister, who, before the parting of ways between the Congress and Jagan, was among the first to raise the demand of ‘Jagan-for-CM’, after YSR died. Raghuveera Reddy is today considered to be among the closest confidants and advisers to Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy. Old allegiances, clearly, still run deep in Andhra Pradesh.

There is no dearth of corruption allegations against Jagan Mohan Reddy, his family members and his associates. In fact, even while YSR was Chief Minister, many senior Congressmen from Andhra would not hesitate in pointing out their embarrassment, given the extent of “corruption” that was allegedly being perpetrated by YSR and his family members. Shortly before the Kadapa bye-election, Jagan himself was served with a notice by the Income Tax department. Yet, somehow, the issue of corruption was either not raised effectively enough. Incidentally, the IT officer behind the notice to Jagan, was transferred forthright, complicating the message going out to the public.

Interestingly, while the Congress sought its level best to cull the votes in favour of Jagan, it did little or nothing at all to counter Jagan’s emotional allegations that the Congress had “divided his family”. It was even stranger to see the Congress reticent in fielding Vivekananda Reddy, YSR’s younger brother and Jagan’s uncle, to counter these allegations.

Indeed, if the Congress chose to do nothing to tackle Jagan in the time that K Rosaiah was Chief Minister in Hyderabad, it should have chosen to stay miles away from Kadapa.

But there’s a more distressing prospect for the Congress, with the extremely evocative and high-charged issue of Telangana rearing its head every few months. For all its might and perceived influence, the Congress cannot wish away the demands for the creation of a separate state of Telangana. Another senior Congress leader from the state told me the Congress will do well to address the issue properly, when it comes up again in June. With 33 MPs from Andhra, the state is the last pocket of potential numbers for the Congress, in the long run-up to the next general election. He admitted that in most other states which had enough MPs to matter, the Congress’ coffers were already at their maximum. He told me: “If Telangana, with 17 MPs, can be created, the Congress by absorbing the TRS, stands to reap maximum benefits. The remaining seats in Andhra Pradesh can best be secured by winning over the TDP.”

In Kadapa, the Congress cut its nose, ended up spiting its face and even getting itself a sound spanking at the hands of Jagan. It will do well to get its act together, rethink its strategy for the state and renew itself. There still is ample time.