In a few hours from now, the UPA’s constituents will meet in the wake of a bruising 48 hours that has seen a calculated whittling away of Sonia Gandhi’s position of sway. On the agenda will be a choice. Not as much a choice of a consensus candidate for the Presidential election, but a choice of direction in which to head.

Consider the turn of events.

Mamata Banerjee, a UPA ally, who till 24 hours back, was just another dissatisfied constituent of UPA-II, demanding a rather uncommon and questionably unconstitutional waiver of fiscal assistance, in the form of a three-year waiver on interest on debt. Yes, she had run through the Left in West Bengal, unceremoniously uprooting their decades-old rule in one fell swoop. Yes, she had swept the bye-elections and the local body elections in West Bengal. Yes, she ought to have been given more respect by the UPA leadership. Instead, she and her Ministers had to resort to a few dozen trips to Delhi, for meeting after meeting with the everyone in the corridors of power, from Sonia Gandhi to the Prime Minister to the Planning Commission. And all the while, as her frustrations grew visibly, and the media – and government – treated her with increasing amusement, one man never lost touch. In fact, on occasion, he would fly down to Kolkata to pacify her when her usual combative statements would lead to her going into a huff. A man who many would point out, played a willing mentor to her, as she prepared a platform from which to take on the Left in Bengal, starting with Nandigram way back in 2007. Her political astuteness grew, in leaps and bounds, especially as the 2011 Assembly elections grew closer, and even still, many wondered about her political transformation.

In many ways, they are similar political creatures. Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee. One a seasoned veteran of many a political battle over the decades, well versed with the intricacies of the sinuous corridors of power in New Delhi.  The other a seasoned veteran of many a political battle in the villages and towns of India’s Communist citadel. The man who stood up in Parliament at the peak of the Anna movement, and somehow managed to tame his brethren across party lines. The woman who showed the wise old Bhadrolok in Writers Building how it’s done, when she walked to office on her first day as Chief Minister, surrounded by lakhs of her supporters.

Indeed, they both are politicians whose time has come. But more importantly, in a season where leadership is being ‘wrested’ and not ‘conferred’, they are both leaders who are aware that the time is NOW.

With the Congress weakened by its own allies and the Sonia-Manmohan combination failing to evolve in step with the changing political scenario, Pranab Mukherjee has evolved from being the Mr Fix-It-All for Sonia Gandhi, into a very real power center in the UPA. Perhaps, the only power center in the Government that matters today.

Sonia Gandhi’s health is certainly not what it used to be… and Rahul Gandhi is nowhere where he should be, politically. Sonia and her trusted lieutenants are fighting fires in every corner of the Congress estate, and the only real ‘Gandhi’ in sight is Priyanka, who herself is years away from coming into her own. Dr Manmohan Singh is a careerist and the title of President of India would fit very nicely into his resume.

All this put together creates a power vacuum in the government, and it was only a matter of time before the laws of nature kicked in.

Caught between a rock, a hard place, mushrooming fires and a failed political progeny, the Congress President could not afford to be seen as grudging an elevation to Pranab Mukherjee. Indeed, her move may well have stemmed more from a sense of self-preservation, and motherhood, rather than anything else. But what it has done, is force her hand.

Little surprise then, that when that moment finally arrived, Mamata Banerjee was at hand.