Congress Cuts Its Nose in Kadapa, Spites Its Face, Gets Spanked

When the results were finally announced for the Kadapa bye-election in Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy had won hands down. With 6,92,251 votes actually. The Congress’ Duggireddy Lakshmireddi Ravindra Reddy got 1,46,579 votes, placing second, with the TDP’s Mysura Reddy MV coming in third, with 1,29,565 votes.

It was a no-contest to begin with. Kadapa is YSR-turf. A constituency that the late Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh spent almost Rs 40,000 crore on, nurturing it over the many years. It was also the place where Jagan Mohan Reddy was camped non-stop, for the past three months and more. The people of Kadapa had embraced the YSR family in warmth, love and support after the charismatic Chief Minister was killed in a tragic helicopter crash in September, 2009.

Why then, did the Congress decide to take on Jagan Mohan in Kadapa, in what was a futile contest to begin with? Why did the Congress wage so much of its prestige on taking on the YSR family on their home turf? Why did it despatch a seemingly endless stream of Ministers and high-profile party leaders to campaign against Jagan, when there was really not a hope in hell to pull off the historic upset it had planned?

A senior Congress leader from Andhra Pradesh told me: “The High Command is being misled by a bunch of Johnnies”, adding, “There was little or no process of consultation between the Central leadership and state leaders”. As a result, the plan to take on Jagan Mohan on his home turf in Kadapa was ill-conceived, mismanaged and improperly implemented.

For example, many of the Andhra Minister who sent to campaign against Jagan, ended up either directly or indirectly keeping the Jagan camp in the know of the behind the scenes planning in the Congress camp. Lets not forget that a large section of the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and a huge number of Cabinet Minister in the state, were till recently staunch supporters of Jagan Mohan. Though some did break away to join him eventually, many stayed back in the Congress camp, more because they felt the bread was buttered better by the Congress. But even if their allegiances with the Congress were temporary and of convenience, most of them still owed their political careers to the late YSR. The senior Congress leader cited the example of

That's what you get!

, the state Revenue Minister, who, before the parting of ways between the Congress and Jagan, was among the first to raise the demand of ‘Jagan-for-CM’, after YSR died. Raghuveera Reddy is today considered to be among the closest confidants and advisers to Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy. Old allegiances, clearly, still run deep in Andhra Pradesh.

There is no dearth of corruption allegations against Jagan Mohan Reddy, his family members and his associates. In fact, even while YSR was Chief Minister, many senior Congressmen from Andhra would not hesitate in pointing out their embarrassment, given the extent of “corruption” that was allegedly being perpetrated by YSR and his family members. Shortly before the Kadapa bye-election, Jagan himself was served with a notice by the Income Tax department. Yet, somehow, the issue of corruption was either not raised effectively enough. Incidentally, the IT officer behind the notice to Jagan, was transferred forthright, complicating the message going out to the public.

Interestingly, while the Congress sought its level best to cull the votes in favour of Jagan, it did little or nothing at all to counter Jagan’s emotional allegations that the Congress had “divided his family”. It was even stranger to see the Congress reticent in fielding Vivekananda Reddy, YSR’s younger brother and Jagan’s uncle, to counter these allegations.

Indeed, if the Congress chose to do nothing to tackle Jagan in the time that K Rosaiah was Chief Minister in Hyderabad, it should have chosen to stay miles away from Kadapa.

But there’s a more distressing prospect for the Congress, with the extremely evocative and high-charged issue of Telangana rearing its head every few months. For all its might and perceived influence, the Congress cannot wish away the demands for the creation of a separate state of Telangana. Another senior Congress leader from the state told me the Congress will do well to address the issue properly, when it comes up again in June. With 33 MPs from Andhra, the state is the last pocket of potential numbers for the Congress, in the long run-up to the next general election. He admitted that in most other states which had enough MPs to matter, the Congress’ coffers were already at their maximum. He told me: “If Telangana, with 17 MPs, can be created, the Congress by absorbing the TRS, stands to reap maximum benefits. The remaining seats in Andhra Pradesh can best be secured by winning over the TDP.”

In Kadapa, the Congress cut its nose, ended up spiting its face and even getting itself a sound spanking at the hands of Jagan. It will do well to get its act together, rethink its strategy for the state and renew itself. There still is ample time.

Tom And Jerry: Government of India and Maoists

News reports have stated that the Chief of Army Staff General V K Singh met Home Minister P Chidambaram recently and that armed forces are finalising action plans to meet any contingency if their role in the ongoing anti-Naxal operations is extended beyond the present one, which is restricted to training and surveillance. A senior army officer is reported to have said:  “If the Government orders us, we will have to step in. Drawing up of contingency plans gained momentum after the Commander’s conference this month”.

Drawing up contingency plans, finalising strategies and tactics, and training for various real and perceived threats – present or future – is the normal function of the armed forces. There is nothing wrong in armed forces  drawing up contingency plans to deal with the Naxal problem. However, this meeting of the Army Chief with the Home Minister in the wake of spectacular successes by the Maoists in attacking government forces, namely killing of 24 policemen in Silda , West Bengal on Feb 15, 80 CRPF men on April 6 in Dantewada, 8 CRPF men in Bijjapur on May 8, 40 including SPOs on May 17 again in Dantewada and over 150 killed and 200 injured on May 28 in a train blast in West Bengal,  conveys that the government is losing its nerve and preparing to use a sledge hammer to swat  irritating mosquitoes. This reminds one about the Tom and Jerry comic series where the small, agile, innovative and intelligent Jerry makes life miserable for the all powerful cat, Tom. Tom uses various tactics, weapons, big guns, etc, trying to lure Jerry with promises of talks to catch him. All his tactics and weapons fail, and often boomerang on him.

There is an impression further gaining ground, that the Government is confused and indecisive. The Home Minister is on record saying his hands are tied. The major party in the ruling coalition is talking in many voices. Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s  ’cause and consequence’ statement published in her party’s mouthpiece Congress Sandesh and her condoning of the attacks by Digvijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyar on the Home Minister, have caused a strange situation which gives an impression  that she doesn’t approve of Chidambaram’s approach. Furthermore, there is no consensus among the various political parties about how to deal with the problem. In fact, major political parties are taking pot shots at the ruling establishment for lack of direction, failures, high handedness, etc. The Home Minister is obviously looking demoralised. The Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, who is spearheading the fight, is also isolated without any support. The morale of the police forces is at its rock bottom and whenever they venture into the forests, they are likely to make mistakes and be killed. Every such Dantewada will further sink the lawkeeper’s morale. Under the circumstances, when the political leadership is undecided and unclear about its objectives and the police force is untrained and ill-equipped with low morale, it is a ripe situation for the Maoists to strike and seize power.

It is high time the political parties sit together and decide whether they want the democratic system to survive, or they will be happy to live under a Maoist dictatorship. If we keep floundering like we currently are, Maoist dictatorship is a distinct possibility in the not too far future, as the events in Nepal have demonstrated. Clarity of direction and determination of the political leadership is the precondition for ensuring the defeat of the Maoists. The Prime Minister should call for an all-party meeting, to take everybody on board, and give the nation a clear signal that we cherish democracy, and are prepared to protect it by all means. Once this political message is conveyed, the fine tuning of the operations should be left to the government. It is not to say that government actions should not be examined and criticised. The criticism should however be constructive in nature.

Coming to the operational aspects, the armed forces are the sledge hammer and an instrument of last resort. They should not be involved in the operations against the Maoists. This will do more harm than good, like the big guns used by Tom against Jerry, that ricochet on Tom. The operations should be handled by the police. Agreed, that the police forces in the affected states – except Andhra Pradesh – are not self-sufficient in numbers, training, equipment and morale. They will need lots of resources and time to be able to take on the Maoists. We have allowed the Maoists to come to this stage due to neglect over the past 40 years. A few more years will not matter much. What will matter, is how quickly we get our act together and strengthen our police forces – both at the state and central level. In the fight against a local guerrilla, it is the intimate knowledge of the area and people that is critical. Something only the local police possess. The central police forces that are deployed after short periods of familiarisation do not possess that knowledge. The best intelligence is received by the SHO of the area who lives and works in that area, and with whom people interact on a day-to-day basis. In both Andhra Pradesh and Punjab, it was the state police that defeated the Maoists and the Khalistanis. And in both the states, the central forces had suffered heavy causalities in their security operations.

The Maoists have gained influence over more than 200 districts over the last 40 years, by a strategy called oil spot strategy. Their approach was to gain control over a small area and then increase their control in the surrounding areas like an oil spot that spreads on the water surface. The government should adopt a counter oil spot strategy. Instead of spreading resources thinly all over the affected states, it should identify areas where it can gain and maintain control and apply resources – vis-a-vis men and material – sufficient to achieve the intended objective. Once the Maoists are driven away from that area, the socio-economic programs and services should be expeditiously and effectively provided. Such successes will convey to people in other areas that the government is serious about providing to them the benefits of democracy and development. Once certain areas are liberated from the Maoists, the neighbouring areas should be targeted and liberated like the oil spot spreading across the water’s surface. Once such a situation is obtained, the inflow of actionable intelligence will reap dividends.

Let us take lessons from the trials and tribulations of Tom and not be tempted to use the Army or air power to deal with the Maoists. Strengthen the police, especially the local police, use the oil spot strategy, and ensure that the socio-economic concerns of the people are met in real terms.

Ram Avatar Yadav, IPS (retired) was the Director General of Police of Andhra Pradesh.