Three Months Of Opportunity In Kathmandu

"We the political parties of Nepal..."

It took hours of tense, hectic back-and-forth negotiations between major Nepali parties to finally agree to agree, and come up with a 5-point agenda to be achieved within a fixed period of three months. The agreement co-signed by Prachanda, for the UCPN-Maoist, Sushil Koirala for the Nepali Congress and JN Khanal for the CPN-UML, lays out that the parties will:

* Complete the fundamental tasks of the peace process within three months

* Prepare the first draft of the constitution through the Constituent Assembly (CA) within three months

* Implement effectively the past agreements reached with the Madhesi Front, including the one to make the Nepal Army (NA) inclusive

* Extend the Constituent Assembly’s term by three months

* And that the Prime Minister will resign, paving the way for the formation of a unity government based on national consensus.

The agreement came in right time, calming the frayed nerves of a nation tottering on the brink of internal chaos and social unrest. Frustration at the high-handed and short-sighted manner in which political parties had been bickering with each other, causing endless delays to the process of Constitution drafting and government formation, had spilled out onto Kathmandu’s streets. Thousands gave vent to their frustration, even as the leaders of the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML tried to stare each other down.

A day before the May 28 deadline, Maoist leader Prachanda backtracked on his promise of handing over control of the Maoist armoury to the Special Committee overseeing the surrender, disbanding and integration of the Maoist army with the Nepali Army. His action forced the Nepali Congress and other parties to backtrack in similar fashion, hardening their stand, refusing to hand over the reins of power, plunging Kathmandu back into the depths of a political stalemate.

But while Kathmandu may have bought Nepal three more months of time – and relative peace – New Delhi should keep its eyes peeled and its ear to the ground.

Trouble has been brewing, with the Maoists increasingly agitated over what they call India’s needless interference in Kathmandu’s matters. What has till recently been restricted to propaganda and threats, has increasingly turned into targeted violence on the ground against Indian interests.

On the 22nd of May, a group of about 60 armed Maoists attacked the site of the 900 MW hydel project of the GMR group in upper Karnali in Nepal. In a span of a little over 90 minutes, havoc was wreaked on the site. Workers – both Indian and Nepali – were attacked,  property damaged, equipment gutted. An Indian and a Nepali were admitted to hospital in serious condition. The damage caused was estimated at above 1.5 crore rupees. The damage included the complete gutting of the workers’ colony at the site.

It was in fact, the second attack on this particular site within weeks.  The same GMR site office was attacked by Maoists on the 16th of April, and the issue taken up by External Affairs Minister SM Krishna with the Maoists and Nepali Government  during his visit to Kathmandu from April 20-22.

The Maoists and Prachanda in particular, have for long now, been labelling India as evil incarnate, pitting Nepali against Nepali to serve its own regional hegemonic intentions. With the power shifts we are witnessing in Kathmandu, accusations like these are expected to get even more shrill.

To quote from an updated fact-sheet on Indo-Nepal relations:  “Today nearly two-thirds of Nepal’s foreign trade is with India and nearly 45% of Nepal’s foreign direct investment comes from India.  Nearly six million Nepali nationals work in India contributing to the growth of remittances in Nepal.  40% of Nepal’s tourists come from India and as number of Indian tourists traveling abroad grows from the current 12 million to 50 million by 2020, many more of them will include Nepal in their list of preferred destinations.  In February last year, the Air Services Agreement between our two countries have been revised and seat capacity have been increased from 6000 per week in either direction to 30000 seats per week for six metro stations in India with an additional unlimited seat capacity from another 21 cities in India.  From 30 flights per week between the two countries five years ago, the number of flights today has more than doubled.

In the last two years, we have increased the number of scholarships for Nepali students from 800 to nearly 1800 today.  Of these, 1100 scholarships are for students studying in Nepal while the rest are for studies in India covering a range of disciplines from medicine, engineering, management, agricultural and veterinary sciences, traditional Indian systems of medicine, music and fine arts, cyber law, etc.

Our economic cooperation programme has also grown rapidly.  Under the Small Development Scheme there over 380 projects either completed or currently under way at a total cost of over NRs.665 crores, covering almost all districts of Nepal.  These include schools, multiple campuses, hospitals, community centres, roads, bridges and other community infrastructure.  In addition, there are major projects on which work has begun – development of railway infrastructure at five border points along India-Nepal border, development of 1600 kilometers of road infrastructure in the Terai where Phase-I accounting for 19 roads totaling 605 kilometers has already begun; development of four Integrated Check Posts along India-Nepal border where work on two of them, Raxaul-Birgunj and Jogbani-Biratnagar has begun; the 200 bed state of the art Emergency and Trauma Centre at Bir Hospital; Manmohan Adhikari Polytechnic at Hetauda, etc.  All this brings our total assistance outlay to over NRs.50 billion.”

It’s an admirable relationship, fostering co-dependency and mutual interest. But if the Maoists are not actively wooed too, how long will this bonhomie last, given their march to power and their increasing proximity to Beijing? Replacing the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty between New Delhi and Kathmandu has topped the agenda of the Maoists for some time now, with demands for a more equitable balance of power. India’s substantial investments and engagements with and in Nepal, still pale in comparison to what the Chinese are willing, able and will be only to happy to provide to Kathmandu, in return for a similar, if not more intricately woven relationship.

South Block is well aware of the growing proximity between Prachanda and Beijing. It is time to dig deep, think out of the box, and stop talking down to Kathmandu.

Tom And Jerry: Government of India and Maoists

News reports have stated that the Chief of Army Staff General V K Singh met Home Minister P Chidambaram recently and that armed forces are finalising action plans to meet any contingency if their role in the ongoing anti-Naxal operations is extended beyond the present one, which is restricted to training and surveillance. A senior army officer is reported to have said:  “If the Government orders us, we will have to step in. Drawing up of contingency plans gained momentum after the Commander’s conference this month”.

Drawing up contingency plans, finalising strategies and tactics, and training for various real and perceived threats – present or future – is the normal function of the armed forces. There is nothing wrong in armed forces  drawing up contingency plans to deal with the Naxal problem. However, this meeting of the Army Chief with the Home Minister in the wake of spectacular successes by the Maoists in attacking government forces, namely killing of 24 policemen in Silda , West Bengal on Feb 15, 80 CRPF men on April 6 in Dantewada, 8 CRPF men in Bijjapur on May 8, 40 including SPOs on May 17 again in Dantewada and over 150 killed and 200 injured on May 28 in a train blast in West Bengal,  conveys that the government is losing its nerve and preparing to use a sledge hammer to swat  irritating mosquitoes. This reminds one about the Tom and Jerry comic series where the small, agile, innovative and intelligent Jerry makes life miserable for the all powerful cat, Tom. Tom uses various tactics, weapons, big guns, etc, trying to lure Jerry with promises of talks to catch him. All his tactics and weapons fail, and often boomerang on him.

There is an impression further gaining ground, that the Government is confused and indecisive. The Home Minister is on record saying his hands are tied. The major party in the ruling coalition is talking in many voices. Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s  ’cause and consequence’ statement published in her party’s mouthpiece Congress Sandesh and her condoning of the attacks by Digvijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyar on the Home Minister, have caused a strange situation which gives an impression  that she doesn’t approve of Chidambaram’s approach. Furthermore, there is no consensus among the various political parties about how to deal with the problem. In fact, major political parties are taking pot shots at the ruling establishment for lack of direction, failures, high handedness, etc. The Home Minister is obviously looking demoralised. The Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, who is spearheading the fight, is also isolated without any support. The morale of the police forces is at its rock bottom and whenever they venture into the forests, they are likely to make mistakes and be killed. Every such Dantewada will further sink the lawkeeper’s morale. Under the circumstances, when the political leadership is undecided and unclear about its objectives and the police force is untrained and ill-equipped with low morale, it is a ripe situation for the Maoists to strike and seize power.

It is high time the political parties sit together and decide whether they want the democratic system to survive, or they will be happy to live under a Maoist dictatorship. If we keep floundering like we currently are, Maoist dictatorship is a distinct possibility in the not too far future, as the events in Nepal have demonstrated. Clarity of direction and determination of the political leadership is the precondition for ensuring the defeat of the Maoists. The Prime Minister should call for an all-party meeting, to take everybody on board, and give the nation a clear signal that we cherish democracy, and are prepared to protect it by all means. Once this political message is conveyed, the fine tuning of the operations should be left to the government. It is not to say that government actions should not be examined and criticised. The criticism should however be constructive in nature.

Coming to the operational aspects, the armed forces are the sledge hammer and an instrument of last resort. They should not be involved in the operations against the Maoists. This will do more harm than good, like the big guns used by Tom against Jerry, that ricochet on Tom. The operations should be handled by the police. Agreed, that the police forces in the affected states – except Andhra Pradesh – are not self-sufficient in numbers, training, equipment and morale. They will need lots of resources and time to be able to take on the Maoists. We have allowed the Maoists to come to this stage due to neglect over the past 40 years. A few more years will not matter much. What will matter, is how quickly we get our act together and strengthen our police forces – both at the state and central level. In the fight against a local guerrilla, it is the intimate knowledge of the area and people that is critical. Something only the local police possess. The central police forces that are deployed after short periods of familiarisation do not possess that knowledge. The best intelligence is received by the SHO of the area who lives and works in that area, and with whom people interact on a day-to-day basis. In both Andhra Pradesh and Punjab, it was the state police that defeated the Maoists and the Khalistanis. And in both the states, the central forces had suffered heavy causalities in their security operations.

The Maoists have gained influence over more than 200 districts over the last 40 years, by a strategy called oil spot strategy. Their approach was to gain control over a small area and then increase their control in the surrounding areas like an oil spot that spreads on the water surface. The government should adopt a counter oil spot strategy. Instead of spreading resources thinly all over the affected states, it should identify areas where it can gain and maintain control and apply resources – vis-a-vis men and material – sufficient to achieve the intended objective. Once the Maoists are driven away from that area, the socio-economic programs and services should be expeditiously and effectively provided. Such successes will convey to people in other areas that the government is serious about providing to them the benefits of democracy and development. Once certain areas are liberated from the Maoists, the neighbouring areas should be targeted and liberated like the oil spot spreading across the water’s surface. Once such a situation is obtained, the inflow of actionable intelligence will reap dividends.

Let us take lessons from the trials and tribulations of Tom and not be tempted to use the Army or air power to deal with the Maoists. Strengthen the police, especially the local police, use the oil spot strategy, and ensure that the socio-economic concerns of the people are met in real terms.

Ram Avatar Yadav, IPS (retired) was the Director General of Police of Andhra Pradesh.