"We the political parties of Nepal..."

It took hours of tense, hectic back-and-forth negotiations between major Nepali parties to finally agree to agree, and come up with a 5-point agenda to be achieved within a fixed period of three months. The agreement co-signed by Prachanda, for the UCPN-Maoist, Sushil Koirala for the Nepali Congress and JN Khanal for the CPN-UML, lays out that the parties will:

* Complete the fundamental tasks of the peace process within three months

* Prepare the first draft of the constitution through the Constituent Assembly (CA) within three months

* Implement effectively the past agreements reached with the Madhesi Front, including the one to make the Nepal Army (NA) inclusive

* Extend the Constituent Assembly’s term by three months

* And that the Prime Minister will resign, paving the way for the formation of a unity government based on national consensus.

The agreement came in right time, calming the frayed nerves of a nation tottering on the brink of internal chaos and social unrest. Frustration at the high-handed and short-sighted manner in which political parties had been bickering with each other, causing endless delays to the process of Constitution drafting and government formation, had spilled out onto Kathmandu’s streets. Thousands gave vent to their frustration, even as the leaders of the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML tried to stare each other down.

A day before the May 28 deadline, Maoist leader Prachanda backtracked on his promise of handing over control of the Maoist armoury to the Special Committee overseeing the surrender, disbanding and integration of the Maoist army with the Nepali Army. His action forced the Nepali Congress and other parties to backtrack in similar fashion, hardening their stand, refusing to hand over the reins of power, plunging Kathmandu back into the depths of a political stalemate.

But while Kathmandu may have bought Nepal three more months of time – and relative peace – New Delhi should keep its eyes peeled and its ear to the ground.

Trouble has been brewing, with the Maoists increasingly agitated over what they call India’s needless interference in Kathmandu’s matters. What has till recently been restricted to propaganda and threats, has increasingly turned into targeted violence on the ground against Indian interests.

On the 22nd of May, a group of about 60 armed Maoists attacked the site of the 900 MW hydel project of the GMR group in upper Karnali in Nepal. In a span of a little over 90 minutes, havoc was wreaked on the site. Workers – both Indian and Nepali – were attacked,  property damaged, equipment gutted. An Indian and a Nepali were admitted to hospital in serious condition. The damage caused was estimated at above 1.5 crore rupees. The damage included the complete gutting of the workers’ colony at the site.

It was in fact, the second attack on this particular site within weeks.  The same GMR site office was attacked by Maoists on the 16th of April, and the issue taken up by External Affairs Minister SM Krishna with the Maoists and Nepali Government  during his visit to Kathmandu from April 20-22.

The Maoists and Prachanda in particular, have for long now, been labelling India as evil incarnate, pitting Nepali against Nepali to serve its own regional hegemonic intentions. With the power shifts we are witnessing in Kathmandu, accusations like these are expected to get even more shrill.

To quote from an updated fact-sheet on Indo-Nepal relations:  “Today nearly two-thirds of Nepal’s foreign trade is with India and nearly 45% of Nepal’s foreign direct investment comes from India.  Nearly six million Nepali nationals work in India contributing to the growth of remittances in Nepal.  40% of Nepal’s tourists come from India and as number of Indian tourists traveling abroad grows from the current 12 million to 50 million by 2020, many more of them will include Nepal in their list of preferred destinations.  In February last year, the Air Services Agreement between our two countries have been revised and seat capacity have been increased from 6000 per week in either direction to 30000 seats per week for six metro stations in India with an additional unlimited seat capacity from another 21 cities in India.  From 30 flights per week between the two countries five years ago, the number of flights today has more than doubled.

In the last two years, we have increased the number of scholarships for Nepali students from 800 to nearly 1800 today.  Of these, 1100 scholarships are for students studying in Nepal while the rest are for studies in India covering a range of disciplines from medicine, engineering, management, agricultural and veterinary sciences, traditional Indian systems of medicine, music and fine arts, cyber law, etc.

Our economic cooperation programme has also grown rapidly.  Under the Small Development Scheme there over 380 projects either completed or currently under way at a total cost of over NRs.665 crores, covering almost all districts of Nepal.  These include schools, multiple campuses, hospitals, community centres, roads, bridges and other community infrastructure.  In addition, there are major projects on which work has begun – development of railway infrastructure at five border points along India-Nepal border, development of 1600 kilometers of road infrastructure in the Terai where Phase-I accounting for 19 roads totaling 605 kilometers has already begun; development of four Integrated Check Posts along India-Nepal border where work on two of them, Raxaul-Birgunj and Jogbani-Biratnagar has begun; the 200 bed state of the art Emergency and Trauma Centre at Bir Hospital; Manmohan Adhikari Polytechnic at Hetauda, etc.  All this brings our total assistance outlay to over NRs.50 billion.”

It’s an admirable relationship, fostering co-dependency and mutual interest. But if the Maoists are not actively wooed too, how long will this bonhomie last, given their march to power and their increasing proximity to Beijing? Replacing the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty between New Delhi and Kathmandu has topped the agenda of the Maoists for some time now, with demands for a more equitable balance of power. India’s substantial investments and engagements with and in Nepal, still pale in comparison to what the Chinese are willing, able and will be only to happy to provide to Kathmandu, in return for a similar, if not more intricately woven relationship.

South Block is well aware of the growing proximity between Prachanda and Beijing. It is time to dig deep, think out of the box, and stop talking down to Kathmandu.