Storm Clouds Gathering Over Raisina Hill?

Waiting to exhale!

There’s a storm brewing in the Ministry of External Affairs.

Rarely have I seen the Foreign Service in such a twist. And not without cause, if the reasons they cite are anything to go by.

Most of their ire, so far is aimed across Raisina Hill, at the Ministry of Home Affairs. In particular, P Chidambaram, the Home Minister, who most in the MEA feel, has become a law unto himself.

“I knew he was arrogant and liked to rule over his minions,” an MEA official told me, “But now his arrogance has begun to affect the credibility of the country.” He was talking about the series of ridiculously embarrassing blunders in the list of India’s 50-most wanted, that had been handed over to Pakistan with much flourish. “Together with the Samjhauta case on a platter in the name of India’s ‘secular’ credentials, we have completely lost our credibility and cannot hold Pakistan convincingly accountable for anything in the future,” he said, adding, “Such was the arrogance of Chidambaram, that he did not even bother to consult the MEA on the list before it was handed over to Pakistani officials. Today, there is not a single of his officers who is willing to speak up. Such is his lordship’s impact,” he added.

A lot of the frustration within the MEA is also about being caught with too many masters to be accountable to. From day-1 in UPA-II, it’s been the norm that the PMO takes the big calls on India’s external relations. In fact, at his first press interaction after taking oath as External Affairs Minister in UPA-II, I asked SM Krishna what his mandate was, because the road-map and decision making process of the MEA had been taken over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. His answer was a wry one. He said: “My job is to play second fiddle to the Prime Minister”. That answer did send attending IFS officers into a bit of a fiddle, but Krishna had hit the nail on the head. With Pranab Mukherjee moving ministries, Krishna wasn’t expected to be ‘strong enough’ to chart India’s foreign policy agenda. It was even more disconcerting then, to see 2 Ministers of State being added to the MEA, when the Minister himself had little work to dispense.

Things became further complicated for Foreign Service officers, when former Foreign Secretary Shivshanker Menon was appointed National Security Advisor. The highly respected and admired IFS officer, though accepted as the best man for the job, would in time come to further overshadow the MEA. Not that he’s making any wrong moves like Chidambaram.

But when all these factors that affecting the MEA are put together, they focus the spotlight on a weakened and frustrated Foreign Service cadre. The same cadre that serves as the first line of engagement with foreign governments. The same cadre that will have to engage with the Pakistanis at the end of the month, during talks on the Siachen issue.

More disconcerting however, are the indications of a an increasingly weakening PMO. Citing an example to this effect, another senior official in the MEA told me: “Look at the manner in which Chidambaram went against the PMO’s decision to grant former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf a visa recently. The PMO decided to grant him a visa, but Chidambaram rejected it, saying, ‘My conscience does not allow it.’ Even the PMO was over-ruled without a second thought.”

Another MEA official recounted the embarrassment within the PMO, over ignorance that a letter of rejection had been sent to US bidders Boeing and Lockheed Martin, in the MMRCA deal. It was only when the Americans expressed themselves rather plainly, that the PMO came to know of the Defense Ministry’s decision.

And perhaps the most embarrassing example of just how shoddy and ill-prepared the Home Ministry has made us appear in our transactions with Pakistan, is what happened at the recent India-Pakistan Home Secretary level talks in March. Home Secretary GK Pillai and his team were pressing for a ‘Judicial Commission’ on the Mumbai Terror Attacks to visit Pakistan for further investigations, when the Interior Secretary of Pakistan, Qamar Zaman Chaudhary pointed out that India hadn’t laid the requisite legal groundwork to warrant a ‘Judicial’ Commission, even though Pakistan was willing to accept such a demand. As a consequence, a highly embarrassed Indian side had to hurriedly drop the word ‘Judicial’ from the joint press release and state that India would send a plain ‘Commission’ to Pakistan instead. The text from the Joint Statement issued on March 29, 2011, is pasted below:

“7. Pakistani side provided updates on the ongoing trial and investigation in Pakistan on the Mumbai Terror Attacks. Pakistan conveyed its readiness, in principle, based upon the principle of comity and reciprocity, to entertain a Commission from India with respect to Mumbai Terror Attack investigations. Modalities and composition in this connection will be worked out through diplomatic channels. Dates for the visit of the Judicial Commission from Pakistan in connection with Mumbai attack trial will be conveyed by India within four-six weeks. NIA and FIA will continue to cooperate in the Mumbai Terror Attack investigations.”

It’s getting stormy on the hill. Now wonder when and where lightning will strike.

Three Months Of Opportunity In Kathmandu

"We the political parties of Nepal..."

It took hours of tense, hectic back-and-forth negotiations between major Nepali parties to finally agree to agree, and come up with a 5-point agenda to be achieved within a fixed period of three months. The agreement co-signed by Prachanda, for the UCPN-Maoist, Sushil Koirala for the Nepali Congress and JN Khanal for the CPN-UML, lays out that the parties will:

* Complete the fundamental tasks of the peace process within three months

* Prepare the first draft of the constitution through the Constituent Assembly (CA) within three months

* Implement effectively the past agreements reached with the Madhesi Front, including the one to make the Nepal Army (NA) inclusive

* Extend the Constituent Assembly’s term by three months

* And that the Prime Minister will resign, paving the way for the formation of a unity government based on national consensus.

The agreement came in right time, calming the frayed nerves of a nation tottering on the brink of internal chaos and social unrest. Frustration at the high-handed and short-sighted manner in which political parties had been bickering with each other, causing endless delays to the process of Constitution drafting and government formation, had spilled out onto Kathmandu’s streets. Thousands gave vent to their frustration, even as the leaders of the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML tried to stare each other down.

A day before the May 28 deadline, Maoist leader Prachanda backtracked on his promise of handing over control of the Maoist armoury to the Special Committee overseeing the surrender, disbanding and integration of the Maoist army with the Nepali Army. His action forced the Nepali Congress and other parties to backtrack in similar fashion, hardening their stand, refusing to hand over the reins of power, plunging Kathmandu back into the depths of a political stalemate.

But while Kathmandu may have bought Nepal three more months of time – and relative peace – New Delhi should keep its eyes peeled and its ear to the ground.

Trouble has been brewing, with the Maoists increasingly agitated over what they call India’s needless interference in Kathmandu’s matters. What has till recently been restricted to propaganda and threats, has increasingly turned into targeted violence on the ground against Indian interests.

On the 22nd of May, a group of about 60 armed Maoists attacked the site of the 900 MW hydel project of the GMR group in upper Karnali in Nepal. In a span of a little over 90 minutes, havoc was wreaked on the site. Workers – both Indian and Nepali – were attacked,  property damaged, equipment gutted. An Indian and a Nepali were admitted to hospital in serious condition. The damage caused was estimated at above 1.5 crore rupees. The damage included the complete gutting of the workers’ colony at the site.

It was in fact, the second attack on this particular site within weeks.  The same GMR site office was attacked by Maoists on the 16th of April, and the issue taken up by External Affairs Minister SM Krishna with the Maoists and Nepali Government  during his visit to Kathmandu from April 20-22.

The Maoists and Prachanda in particular, have for long now, been labelling India as evil incarnate, pitting Nepali against Nepali to serve its own regional hegemonic intentions. With the power shifts we are witnessing in Kathmandu, accusations like these are expected to get even more shrill.

To quote from an updated fact-sheet on Indo-Nepal relations:  “Today nearly two-thirds of Nepal’s foreign trade is with India and nearly 45% of Nepal’s foreign direct investment comes from India.  Nearly six million Nepali nationals work in India contributing to the growth of remittances in Nepal.  40% of Nepal’s tourists come from India and as number of Indian tourists traveling abroad grows from the current 12 million to 50 million by 2020, many more of them will include Nepal in their list of preferred destinations.  In February last year, the Air Services Agreement between our two countries have been revised and seat capacity have been increased from 6000 per week in either direction to 30000 seats per week for six metro stations in India with an additional unlimited seat capacity from another 21 cities in India.  From 30 flights per week between the two countries five years ago, the number of flights today has more than doubled.

In the last two years, we have increased the number of scholarships for Nepali students from 800 to nearly 1800 today.  Of these, 1100 scholarships are for students studying in Nepal while the rest are for studies in India covering a range of disciplines from medicine, engineering, management, agricultural and veterinary sciences, traditional Indian systems of medicine, music and fine arts, cyber law, etc.

Our economic cooperation programme has also grown rapidly.  Under the Small Development Scheme there over 380 projects either completed or currently under way at a total cost of over NRs.665 crores, covering almost all districts of Nepal.  These include schools, multiple campuses, hospitals, community centres, roads, bridges and other community infrastructure.  In addition, there are major projects on which work has begun – development of railway infrastructure at five border points along India-Nepal border, development of 1600 kilometers of road infrastructure in the Terai where Phase-I accounting for 19 roads totaling 605 kilometers has already begun; development of four Integrated Check Posts along India-Nepal border where work on two of them, Raxaul-Birgunj and Jogbani-Biratnagar has begun; the 200 bed state of the art Emergency and Trauma Centre at Bir Hospital; Manmohan Adhikari Polytechnic at Hetauda, etc.  All this brings our total assistance outlay to over NRs.50 billion.”

It’s an admirable relationship, fostering co-dependency and mutual interest. But if the Maoists are not actively wooed too, how long will this bonhomie last, given their march to power and their increasing proximity to Beijing? Replacing the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty between New Delhi and Kathmandu has topped the agenda of the Maoists for some time now, with demands for a more equitable balance of power. India’s substantial investments and engagements with and in Nepal, still pale in comparison to what the Chinese are willing, able and will be only to happy to provide to Kathmandu, in return for a similar, if not more intricately woven relationship.

South Block is well aware of the growing proximity between Prachanda and Beijing. It is time to dig deep, think out of the box, and stop talking down to Kathmandu.